A December through February forecast from the National Weather Service calls for a 45% chance of above-normal precipitation in the Upper Peninsula and a 20% chance of below normal.

The forecast is linked to a weak La Nina — a periodic cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that typically delivers higher precipitation to the U.P. But another factor is climate change, which is nudging snow totals down.

“Not surprisingly, over most of the contiguous United States, January-March snowfall has trended downwards,” said Tom DiLiberto of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Communications. “Less snow doesn’t necessarily mean less precipitation, though.”

For much of the Great Lakes region, precipitation has actually increased in winter but “would-be” snow is falling as rain, DiLiberto explained.

Overall, the NWS forecast is neutral on winter temperatures in the U.P., while AccuWeather forecasters predict a highly variable pattern.

“An uptick in snow is likely across parts of the Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan,” AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said. But that snow could also be broken up by milder stretches that include rain, he said.

Another factor is the polar vortex, which may surge frigid air into the region — most likely in February, based on past winters. The backend to the season might carry the best chance for multiple snowstorms, Lada said.

Typical snowfall through an entire season at Iron Mountain-Kingsford is about 60 inches. During last year’s mild winter it was 31 inches, while in 2022-23 it was 88 inches.

For the near term, there seems little chance for snow until later this month, as temperatures remain well above average.

October temperatures averaged 50 degrees at Iron Mountain-Kingsford, which was nearly 4 degrees above normal. The highest reading was 80 degrees Oct. 21 and the lowest was 27 degrees on Oct. 17 and Oct. 24.

Temperatures in 2024 stayed above freezing from May 11 until Oct. 9. Over the past 125 years, the mean for Iron Mountain-Kingsford is May 26 until Sept. 21.

Rainfall at the Iron Mountain-Kingsford Wastewater Treatment Plant observation site measured 1.95 inches in October, which was about a half-inch below average.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate drought in Dickinson County and all bordering counties, with severe drought in northern Iron County as well as Gogebic County. Moderate drought or worse is observed across the entire U.P. except for parts of Ontonagon, Keweenaw and Baraga counties that are abnormally dry.

Water equivalent precipitation at Iron Mountain-Kingsford has totaled 24.54 inches through October of this year, which is about 3 inches below average. A record-dry September was a big factor, as only 0.53 inches of rain was recorded. After a wet spring, it was also much drier than average in July and August.