We could see flakes fly late today into Sunday, then again Tuesday. Sub-freezing lows are predicted late today through at least early Thursday, according to the National Weather Service office in Negaunee.

That threshold marks when most of the northwood’s insects, reptiles and amphibians bow out for the year. But it’s also a major transition period for the region’s seasonal birds.

So it’s worth checking out predictions for what might be coming to the feeders when winter manifests itself in earnest.

The Winter Finch Forecast is out for 2023-24. “Winter finches” is the common term among birdwatchers for a number of species known to occur primarily in the winter months, and usually only certain years when conditions are right. These birds are not so much north-south migrants in winter as nomadic, moving when needed depending on the food resources.

It may be a good year for sightings of purple finches. (Betsy Bloom/Daily News photo)

The forecast, prepared by Tyler Hoar of the Finch Research Network in Canada, as always offers the caveat that its prognoses are more focused on Ontario and the provinces and adjacent states to the south and east. The U.P. and northern Wisconsin are on the western end of its analysis, though the forecast has broadened somewhat over the years.

But the forecast still can be a useful indicator of what we can watch for as the season progresses, said Ryan Brady, a conservation biologist with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. He assisted me in interpreting some of the forecast’s predictions.

“I think overall it’s going to be a decent year,” he said, with most of the winter species at least present, some in greater than normal numbers.

Evening grosbeaks, unfortunately, likely won’t be as abundant this winter. Considering last winter’s turnout was spectacular in the region — including at least a couple almost fully yellow individuals among the flocks — that prediction should not come as a surprise.

Brady had hundreds of evening grosbeaks spend the winter on his property in the Ashland, Wis., area, not finally departing until early May. But the forecast mentions good food crops in the east, which could keep many of them there, Brady said.

But if evening grosbeaks had another good reproductive year, some could wander through, looking for new feeding opportunities, he said.

The cone crop in Canada’s boreal forest appears to be poor to below average except for bumper output in Alaska and Newfoundland, along with good crops on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, according to the forecast.

However, the forecast states that in our region, “the southern edge of the eastern boreal forest from Lake Superior eastward to the Atlantic coast and southward to the northeastern states has extensive areas of bumper eastern white pine crop.”

The forecast also noted the “above-average deciduous tree seed crop and excellent fruiting crop.”

This matches what is being reported locally, that trees such as apple, crabapple, chokecherry and others with berries or fruit are laden this year.

Which means the fruit-loving species, such as pine grosbeaks and Bohemian waxwings, could remain north, Brady said. But the forecast also mentions the mountain ash crop west of Lake Superior reportedly is below average, so some might come from that direction.

“Areas in the upper Midwest states and cities in western Canada may see flocks of hungry grosbeaks searching for fruiting ornamental trees and well-stocked feeders with black oil sunflower seeds,” the forecast advised.

Some of the forecast’s other predictions for favorite winter species that can occur in our area:

— Purple finches: This could be a good winter for this bird, Brady said. “Meanwhile from the upper Midwest states westward, there should be a stronger flight southward through the middle of the United States. Don’t be surprised if, as winter progresses, a late movement in January and February occurs into the Carolinas as eastern crops are depleted.” Purple finches, it noted, like black oil sunflower seeds.

— Redpolls: Might be worth putting out the niger seeds and black oil for these sparrow-like finches with the scarlet foreheads, as their usual seed sources — spruce and birch — to the north as considered poor to below average. This species was relatively scarce last winter. “Often it’s an every-other-year pattern for redpolls,” Brady said. They usually prefer to use natural seed sources before turning to feeders, so might not be as visible until later in the season.

— Pine siskins: “With the poor white spruce crop in much of the boreal forest, there should be a moderate to possibly strong flight of siskins southward this fall,” the forecast states. This has materialized, with Whitefish Point in Chippewa County already recording flocks of 20,000 and 13,000 flying through on two consecutive days, Brady said. These winter goldfinch-lookalikes — they differ in having a streaked breast and sides — also can be lured in with niger seeds, sunflower pieces or a finch mix.

— Evening grosbeaks: Though they prefer platform feeders with black oil sunflower seeds, evening grosbeaks also like maple and ash tree seeds if still available.

A note on two other winter finch species in the forecast, the white-winged and red crossbills. Brady has far better expertise than I on these, highly nomadic because they go to where pine cone crops are best. Regional red crossbill varieties, for example, can be told apart only by song. He’s seen movement of type 2 and 4 from the west since June that probably will stick around through the winter, perhaps even nest in the area if the local cone crop is abundant.

White-winged crossbills, too, could be seen in the region in late June, moving westward from the east, Brady said, but he doesn’t anticipate a full flight given the bumper cone crops reported on the northern coasts.

Among the “non-finch” winter species, the most noteworthy is “more widespread movements” of Bohemian waxwings from Lake Superior westward, especially as food sources in the east dwindle. Look for these crested brown birds with black mask — distinguished from the cedar waxwing by having a rust-colored vent under the tail rather than yellow — in trees that have small fruit, such as buckthorn, mountain ash and crabapples.

Brady believes most Bohemian waxwings and pine grosbeaks will have enough food available in the north to stay put, at least initially, but could appear later in the winter as those fruit sources become depleted.

He also noted the forecast every year “is sort of a best guess … The birds do what they want” but added, “for the most part, they’re usually pretty close.”

To read the Winter Finch Forecast online, go to https://finchnetwork.org/winter-finch-forecast-2023-2024.

Betsy Bloom can be reached at 906-774-2772, ext. 240, or bbloom@ironmountaindailynews.com.